NEPAC UPDATE: 2234Z, 23-JAN-08

THE QUIESCENT PATTERN WHICH SET IN LAST WEEK CONTINUES. A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK, WHICH RETROGRADED AND SITS STATIONARY ALONG 150W, IS PREVENTING ANY SERIOUS TROPICAL FEATURES FROM BECOMING ESTABLISHED. NO NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 96 - 108 HOURS. EOT. FORECASTER - SCHMID-TRIGGER.

NEPAC TROPICAL SYNOPSYS - 15-JAN-08

A MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCK, AND, A HIATUS IN SEED AREA ACTIVITY NEAR THE PHILIPPINES AND NEAR HAWAII, ARE RESULTING IN A RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN NEPAC. THAT HAVING BEEN WRITTEN ... AT THIS MIDPOINT OF JAN-08, WE FIND AN UNPRECEDENTED SCENARIO OF HAVING ALREADY REACHED 4 NAMED STORMS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OVERALL SEASON COULD STILL PROCEED AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE, NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE EARLY SURGE OF TC ACTIVITY, A VERY LONG AND ACTIVE SEASON, MOST LIKELY AN ALL TIME RECORD BREAKING SEASON (BIGGEST SEASON IN AT LEAST A MILLION YEARS?) SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY. ONCE THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS UP, AND THE SEED AREAS RETURN TO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FORMATION, WE ANTICIPATE (AND GLEEFULLY LOOK FORWARD TO) MORE NAMED STORMS TO ADD TO THE COUNT. EOT. FORECASTER - HAY-MAN.

TD005 - 1648Z, 15-JAN-08

THE REMNANT OF NOGURI (TD005) CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE AND DISSIPATE IN RESPONSE TO THE MAJOR EASTERN PACIFIC OMEGA BLOCK. CURRENT POSITION IS 146W, 31N. THIS IS THE FINAL REPORT ON THIS FEATURE. EOT. FORECASTER - BLEUM.

TD004 - 1645Z, 15-JAN-08

THE REMNANT OF BORIS (TD004) IS DISSIPATING OVER BANFF NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS THE LAST REPORT ON THIS FEATURE. EOT. FORECASTER - SCHMID-TRIGGER.

TROPICAL STORM NOGURI - 1651Z, 14-JAN-08

TROPICAL STORM NOGURI PULLED UP STATIONARY AGAINST WHAT IS NOW AN OMEGA BLOCK, IS RETROGRADING, AND CONTINUING TO LOSE STRENGTH. CURRENT TRACK IS WNW AT 5KT. CURRENT POSITION IS 141W, 37N. EOT. FORECASTER - EL-RABAT.

TROPICAL STORM BORIS - 1647Z, 14-JAN-08

TROPICAL STORM BORIS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY LOSE STRENGTH AND SHOULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 3 - 4 HOURS. CURRENT LOCATION IS ON LAND, AT 130W, 60N. EOT. FORECASTER - EL-RABAT.

HURRICANE NOGURI - 0253Z, 12-JAN-08

HURRICANE NOGURI NOW LOCATED AT 176W, 40N. IT HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER WOBBLE BUT HAS, FOR NOW, RESUMED ESE TRACK. MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE NOW DEPICTS ONLY A BRIEF STATIONARY EPISODE WITH TRACK THEN TURNING NE. APPEARS THIS STORM WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRACK AS BORIS, FROM THAT JUNCTURE. STILL PROG'ING OVERALL WEAKENING, LIKELY TO BE A TD AT LANDFALL, ASSUMING TRACK HOLDS. EOT. FORECASTER - EL-RABAT.

HURRICANE BORIS - 0249Z, 12-JAN-08

HURRICANE BORIS NOW LOCATED AT 145W, 45N. CONTINUING ON A NE TRACK. EXPECT LANDFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS HOWEVER IN A WEAKENED STATE DUE TO COLDER SST'S. TS WATCH ELEVATED TO TS WARNING, FOR SAME ZONE AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY. EOT. FORECASTER - EL-RABAT.

HURRICANE NOGURI - 1805 Z, 11-JAN-08

EARLIER TODAY, TYPHOON NOGURI CROSSED 180, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT LEFTWARD / NORTHWARD WOBBLE. THIS STORM IS NOW DESIGNATED AS HURRICANE NOGURI, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. LOCATION IS 179W, 40N, TRACK HAS RESUMED ESE. AT THIS TIME, THIS FEATURE IS OF NOTE SOLELY TO MARINE TRAFFIC (ESPECIALLY DUMB SHIPS) AS IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY AGAINST A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE PROG'ED TO BE ALONG 14OW AT THE TIME. STORM IS PROG'ED TO THEN LOSE STRENGTH, AND, IF IT EVER REACHES LAND, SHOULD BE A TD, AT MOST. NONETHELESS ... THIS IS THE 4TH NAMED STORM (AND 4TH HURRICANE!) IN THIS HIGHLY UNPRECEDENTED 2008 SEASON. RETROSPECTIVELY, CHANGING SEASON TO YEAR ROUND (JAN 01 THROUGH DEC 31) WAS A *WISE* CHOICE. EOT. FORECASTER - HAY-MAN.

HURRICANE BORIS - TS WATCH - 1755Z, 11-JAN-08

THE NATIONAL HYSTERIA CENTER ("NHC"), NEPAC DIVISION, HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, BETWEEN VICTORIA, AND, JUNEAU. HURRICANE BORIS, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 150W, 42N, AND IS ON A STEADY NE TRACK. GIVEN SST'S (WHICH LOWER CLOSER TO LAND, DUE TO UPWELLING AND THE LONG SHORE CURRENT OUT OF THE NORTH), WE EXPECT SOME REDUCTION IN STRENGTH, DOWN TO TS LEVEL, PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS PROG'ED FOR SOME TIME LATE Z TOMORROW OR EARLY Z THE FOLLOWING DAY. STRONG WINDS, HEAVY FLOODING RAINS AND NOTABLE STORM SURGE ALONG WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LAND FALL ZONE, PARTICULARLY IN THE RIGHT, FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. NEXT UPDATE, EARLY, 12-JAN-08 Z. EOT. FORECASTER - HOLDEN.

HURRICANE BORIS - 0144Z, 11-JAN-08

BASED ON DVORAK, AND, A WIND REPORT FROM A DUMB SHIP, WE RAISE THIS FEATURE TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 - 70KTS, CURRENT LOCATION OF EYE IS 160W, 38N. CENTRAL PRESSURE WE'D RATHER NOT DISCUSS. FEATURE IS PROG'ED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT ESE, WHERE, IT EVENTUALLY COMES UP AGAINST NOW FORMING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. FROM THERE, TRACK AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT ARE NOT RESOLVING WELL WITH MODELS. NONETHELESS, WE ARE NOW AT THREE HURRICANES OUT OF THREE NAMED NEPAC STORMS, AND WE HAVE YET TO COMPLETE SECOND FULL WEEK OF JANUARY. UNPRECEDENTED. EOT. FORECASTER - SCHMID-TRIGGER.

TYPHOON NOGURI - 0014Z, 11-JAN-08

IN WHAT IS RAMPING UP TO BE AN UNPRECEDENTED SEASON, WE NOW MAKE A NOTE OF TYPHOON NOGURI, WHICH, HAVING DRIFTED IN AN ARC FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC, EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES, TO JUST TO THE EAST OF KYUSHU, THEN EAST FROM THERE, NOW IS POISED TO ENTER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE TO THE NW OF THE HAWAIAN ISLANDS. IT CURRENTLY IS LOCATED AT 179E, 36N, AND IS DRIFTING ESE AT 25KTS. ASSUMING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS MAINTAINED, UPON CROSSING THE DATE LINE, THIS FEATURE WOULD BE RE-DESIGNATED HURRICANE NOGURI. THIS APPEARS TO SET THE NORMS FOR THIS HIGHLY UNPRECEDENTED (AGW DRIVEN?) SEASON. WE WILL THEREFORE BE PULLING NAMES FROM THE NEPAC 2008 NAMES LIST FOR STORMS REACHING NAMING CRITERIA IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE PORTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND, LEVERAGING THE TYPHOON NAMES FOR THOSE WHICH ENTER AS TROPICAL STORMS OR TYPHOONS. EOT. FORECASTER - HAY-MAN.

TROPICAL STORM BORIS - 2140Z, 10-JAN-08

TD003 HAS BEEN ELEVATED TO A TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM BORIS HAS CLOSED CIRCULATION, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 - 45KT, AND IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. CURRENT LOCATION IS AT 165W, 37-30N. TRACK IS TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. STEERING CURRENTS ARE PROG'ED TO BRING THIS STORM INTO SHORE BETWEEN COLUMBIA RIVER AND PRINCE RUPERT. WILL CONSIDER TS WATCH IN PORTION OF LIKELY LANDFALL AREA FOR EARLY Z, 11-JAN UPDATE. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS STORM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER NEXT 18 - 36 HOURS. SLOW CURVE SHOULD KEEP IT OVER REASONABLE SST'S AND STRONG SHEER IS NOT INDICATED. EOT. FORECASTER - HAY-MAN.

TD003 - 1655Z, 10-JAN-08

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DRIFTED UP OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND IS NOW DESIGNATED TD003. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS RAPIDLY ORGANIZING AND IS ON THE VERGE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION. CURRENT LOCATION IS 167W, 36N. TRACK IS GENERALLY ENE. EXPECT TO BUMP UP TO TS LEVEL LATER TODAY. EOT. FORECASTER - BLEUM.

TD002/HAGIBIS - DISSIPATING - 1640Z, 10-JAN-08

HAGIBIS HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD002), LOCATED AT 135W, 52N. PROG'ED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL UPDATE FOR THIS FEATURE. (THIS NOW RESULTS IN TWO NAMED STORMS IN NEPAC - UNPRECEDENTED FOR SO EARLY IN THE NOW-EXPANDED SEASON.) EOT. FORECASTER - HAIRYDOME.

HAGIBIS - TS WATCH SUSPENDED, 0415 Z, 10-JAN-08

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS SUSPENDED. NEXT REPORT APPROX 1700 Z.

TROPICAL STORM HAGIBIS - 1640Z, 09-JAN-08

AS PROG'ED, TODAY, HAGIBIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, AS THE STORM IS AFFECTED BY ITS TRACK OVER SST'S WHICH ARE COOLING DAY BY DAY. ALSO, SHEAR IT TAKING ITS TOLL. CURRENT LOCATION IS APPROX 162W, 45N. HAGIBIS IS PROG'ED TO CONTINUE FALLING APART, AND MAY FALL TO DEPRESSION STATUS AS SOON AS 1700Z, 10-JAN-08. WILL LOOK TO AFTERNOON SHIFT TO CONSIDER ENDING TS WATCH. EOT. FORECASTER - KILOMETERENWURTHER.

TS WATCH - HURRICANE HAGIBIS

AT 2240Z, 08-JAN-08, THE NATIONAL HYSTERIA CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN CAPE MENDOCINO AND JUNEAU. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE TRACK FOR HURRICANE HAGIBIS TAKES THE STORM OVER THE NORTH END OF A NOW-FORMING DIRTY RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG APPROX 155W, THEN THROUGH A SLOW LEFT CURVE TOWARD THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. THE STORM IS PROG'ED TO MOVE OVER COLDER SST'S AND THROUGH SOME SHEER, THEREFORE, WE PROG THIS STORM TO FALL TO TS LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 - 36 HOURS. PROG'ED ROUGH TRACK:
12Z, 09-JAN - 159W, 47-30N, HUR, CAT1
12Z, 10-JAN - 135W, 52N, TS
12Z, 11-JAN - ON LAND, 130W, 55N, TD (DISSIPATING)
EOT. FORECASTER - JEANPIERREMANUELFILIPARTHUR.

HURRICANE HAGIBIS - 1700Z, 08-JAN-08

THE NATIONAL HYSTERIA CENTER (NEPAC DIVISION) RE-DESIGNATED TYPHOON HAGIBIS AS HURRICANE HAGIBIS, UPON THIS STORM'S ENTREE INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. AS WITH THE MUCH REPORTED, WIDELY DESTRUCTIVE ALMA, THIS SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE NEPAC 2008 SEASON IS UNPRECEDENTED IN A NUMBER OF WAYS. THE FIRST EVER TYPHOON TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH CROSSING THE DATE LINE EASTBOUND. THE SECOND EARLIEST NEPAC HURRICANE IN LOCAL RECORDED HISTORY. HAGIBIS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 171 W, 42 N AND IS MOVING E AT 20KT. STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY BUMP THIS STORM TO THE NORTH AROUND 160 W. FROM THERE, MODELS ARE NOT CONVERGING, AT PRESENT, ON A DEFINITE TRACK. AFTERNOON SHIFT WILL CONSIDER WATCHES AND WARNINGS BASED ON NEW MODEL RUNS. EOT. FORECASTER - HOLDEN.

TYPHOON HAGIBIS - 0229 Z, 08-JAN-08

TYPHOON HAGIBIS, CURRENTLY A CAT 1 STORM, IS NEARING 180E/W. UPON CROSSING 180, ASSUMING IT IS STILL AT HURRICANE STRENGTH, IT WILL BE RE-DESIGNATED HURRICANE HAGIBIS. AS THIS IS YET ANOTHER UNPRECEDENTED EVENT, RELATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN NEPAC, WE ARE SIMPLY CONTINUING WITH THE ORIGINAL TYPHOON NAME SO AS TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH REACH NAMING CRITERIA, ARISING IN NEPAC PROPER, WILL DERIVE THEIR NAMES FROM THE 2008 NEPAC SEQUENTIAL LIST. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AFTER 1700 Z. EOT. FORECASTER - CUREIGH.

ALMA - **HURRICANE WARNING** - 1745Z, 04-JAN-08

THE NATIONAL HYSTERIA CENTER (NEPAC DIVISION) HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. ALMA, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE, IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 - 24 HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65KTS, HEAVY RAINS, FLOODING AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE CAN BE EXPECTED. ALMA CURRENTLY HAS A DUAL EYE STRUCTURE - 958 MB AT 44N, 135W, AND, 950MB AT 48N, 134W. OCCLUDED MAJOR FEEDER BANDS SPIRAL OUT, TRANSECTING CENTRAL WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE, CENTRAL OREGON, MT. SHASTA, SACRAMENTO, THE FAR NORTHERN BAY AREA AND BACK OUT TO SEA. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNPRECEDENTED IN A NUMBER OF WAYS. EARLIEST EVER NAMED STORM IN NEPAC. EARLIEST EVER NEPAC HURRICANE. FARTHEST NORTH NEPAC HURRICANE. UNPRECEDENTED IN PERHAPS A MILLION YEARS. EOT. HAY-MANN.

HURRICANE ALMA - UPDATE - 0241Z, 04-JAN-08

LOCATION OF EYE IS 43N, 140W. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN THROUGH 966 MB. DVORAK ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS RANGE FROM 65 - 70KT. THEREFORE ... WE NOW DESIGNATE THIS TC AS CATEGORY 1, HURRICANE ALMA. TRACK IS STILL PROGGING TO TURN NORTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. PREVIOUS WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL REMAIN AS STATED. NEXT UPDATE 1700 Z.

TS ALMA - **HURRICANE WATCH** - 0000 Z, 04-JAN-08

SOME MAJOR UPDATES IN BOTH PROG'ED TRACK AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. ALMA IS CURRENTLY CENTERED AT 44N, 143W, CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD ESE ... HOWEVER ... LATEST MODEL RUNS PROG TRACK TO CURVE NORTHWARD. LANDFALL IN PACNW NOW INCREASINGLY LIKELY, PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS VANCOUVER I. DEVELOPMENT WISE - CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN THROUGH 970 MB. SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM SUSTAINED 40KT TO 55KT. WITH EXPECTED LOWERING THROUGH 960 MB, WE NOW RAISE LEVEL TO HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAIN TRACK AREA. THEREFORE ... FROM PT CONCEPTION TO PT ARENA, TS WATCH. FROM PT ARENA TO COOS BAY, TS WARNING. FROM COOS BAY TO NORTHERN END OF VANC I, HURRICANE WATCH, FROM N END OF VANC TO PRINCE RUPERT, TS WARNING, FROM PRINCE RUPERT TO JUNEAU TS WATCH. EOT. SCHMIDT-TRIGGER.

TS ALMA - URGENT UPDATE - STORM SURGE

**URGENT UPDATE** REGARDING DANGEROUS SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE NATIONAL HYSTERIA CENTER (NEPAC DIVISION), AT 2000 Z, 03-JAN-08, ISSUED A DANGEROUS SURF WARNING AND COASTAL FLOODING ADVISORY. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST NEAR 30 FOOT SWELL BY LATE Z, 04-JAN-08. DAMAGING BREAKERS AND STORM SURGE ARE HIGHLY LIKELY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LANDFALL POINT OF STORM CENTER. PLEASE BE ON ALERT FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION ORDERS AND FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS. EOT. HAY-MANN.

TS ALMA - UPDATE 1800 Z, 03-JAN-08

TS WATCH NOW RAISED TO WARNING FOR CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, SAN LUIS OBISPO, MONTEREY, SANTA CRUZ, SAN MATEO, SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, SONOMA, MENDOCINO AND HUMBOLDT. ALL OTHER CALIFORNIA COUNTIES UNDER A TS WATCH. A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FULLY DEVELOPED. WIND INTENSITY HAS RISEN MORE DRAMATICALLY THAN PROG'ED. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AND QUICK SCAT ARE THAT SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE ACHIEVED LATER TODAY. CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB. CURRENT LOCATION IS APPROX 46N, 150W, WITH STEERING WINDS TRACKING TOWARD CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECTED LANDFALL WILL BE BETWEEN 35N AND 39N, ETA EARLY HOURS Z 04-JAN-08. AFTERNOON SHIFT MAY BUMP UP TO HURRICANE WATCH. EOT. EL-RABET.

TS WATCH: ALMA

AT 1147 Z, 02-JAN-2008, THE NATIONAL HYSTERIA CENTER (NEPAC DIVISION) HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION D001 IS LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THE HAWAIAN ISLANDS AND IS INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, VAST AREAS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS EARLY AS 0000 Z, 04-JAN. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 11 AND 12-DEC-1995 LEVELS ARE LIKELY. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE UPDATED AT 1800 Z, 03-JAN. EOT. BLEUM.