NEPAC UPDATE: 2234Z, 23-JAN-08

THE QUIESCENT PATTERN WHICH SET IN LAST WEEK CONTINUES. A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK, WHICH RETROGRADED AND SITS STATIONARY ALONG 150W, IS PREVENTING ANY SERIOUS TROPICAL FEATURES FROM BECOMING ESTABLISHED. NO NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 96 - 108 HOURS. EOT. FORECASTER - SCHMID-TRIGGER.

NEPAC TROPICAL SYNOPSYS - 15-JAN-08

A MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCK, AND, A HIATUS IN SEED AREA ACTIVITY NEAR THE PHILIPPINES AND NEAR HAWAII, ARE RESULTING IN A RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN NEPAC. THAT HAVING BEEN WRITTEN ... AT THIS MIDPOINT OF JAN-08, WE FIND AN UNPRECEDENTED SCENARIO OF HAVING ALREADY REACHED 4 NAMED STORMS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OVERALL SEASON COULD STILL PROCEED AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE, NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE EARLY SURGE OF TC ACTIVITY, A VERY LONG AND ACTIVE SEASON, MOST LIKELY AN ALL TIME RECORD BREAKING SEASON (BIGGEST SEASON IN AT LEAST A MILLION YEARS?) SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY. ONCE THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS UP, AND THE SEED AREAS RETURN TO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FORMATION, WE ANTICIPATE (AND GLEEFULLY LOOK FORWARD TO) MORE NAMED STORMS TO ADD TO THE COUNT. EOT. FORECASTER - HAY-MAN.

TD005 - 1648Z, 15-JAN-08

THE REMNANT OF NOGURI (TD005) CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE AND DISSIPATE IN RESPONSE TO THE MAJOR EASTERN PACIFIC OMEGA BLOCK. CURRENT POSITION IS 146W, 31N. THIS IS THE FINAL REPORT ON THIS FEATURE. EOT. FORECASTER - BLEUM.

TD004 - 1645Z, 15-JAN-08

THE REMNANT OF BORIS (TD004) IS DISSIPATING OVER BANFF NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS THE LAST REPORT ON THIS FEATURE. EOT. FORECASTER - SCHMID-TRIGGER.

TROPICAL STORM NOGURI - 1651Z, 14-JAN-08

TROPICAL STORM NOGURI PULLED UP STATIONARY AGAINST WHAT IS NOW AN OMEGA BLOCK, IS RETROGRADING, AND CONTINUING TO LOSE STRENGTH. CURRENT TRACK IS WNW AT 5KT. CURRENT POSITION IS 141W, 37N. EOT. FORECASTER - EL-RABAT.

TROPICAL STORM BORIS - 1647Z, 14-JAN-08

TROPICAL STORM BORIS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY LOSE STRENGTH AND SHOULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 3 - 4 HOURS. CURRENT LOCATION IS ON LAND, AT 130W, 60N. EOT. FORECASTER - EL-RABAT.

HURRICANE NOGURI - 0253Z, 12-JAN-08

HURRICANE NOGURI NOW LOCATED AT 176W, 40N. IT HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER WOBBLE BUT HAS, FOR NOW, RESUMED ESE TRACK. MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE NOW DEPICTS ONLY A BRIEF STATIONARY EPISODE WITH TRACK THEN TURNING NE. APPEARS THIS STORM WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRACK AS BORIS, FROM THAT JUNCTURE. STILL PROG'ING OVERALL WEAKENING, LIKELY TO BE A TD AT LANDFALL, ASSUMING TRACK HOLDS. EOT. FORECASTER - EL-RABAT.